The Other "Bad Guys"

[kuranes]

The enemy of my enemy is my friend ?

I remember the USA recruiting the poppy processing tribes kicked out by the Taliban in order to retake Afghansistan and and therefore supposedly reassert control of a different sort ( more amenable to the USA except for the heroin that comes from the poppies ) . There have been some problems with this ( just as there were eventually problems with the Mujahideen that were recruited to kick out the Russians ) but apparently the powers that be prefer the anti-Taliban tribes because they are not currently in league with al Quaida.

Just as nomads move across the lands they are in, confounding geographical property boundaries, so do these tribes change allegiances as they see fit. Maulavi Abdul Hakim Munib was a former Senior Taliban official and is now ( last I checked ) Governor of Uruzgan province in Afghanistan. he sometimes serves as a conduit or liaison between the US backed Afghan "government" and the increasingly encroaching Taliban, including their Quetta Shura or tribal council of leaders. This is probably a smart idea on the part of that current government. They know the reality is that the international forces are not always there to back up their policies when it counts - you only live once etc.

Look at the "Awakening" in Iraq. The USA finally decided to start doing something with many of the Sunnis that they had originally sidelined after the invasion. These Sunnis were also getting tired of the random nature of al Quaida guerilla casualties. Most importantly perhaps ( tell me your opinion ) they were getting paid by the USA to fight for their communities. They know these communities much better than foreign soldiers do and can also move through them as part of the background, blending in. It wasn't surprising to me that it was after this that al Quaeda started losing ground. IMHO it is mostly this , and not the vaunted "surge" that made such a big difference.

The new move is to take many of them off the payroll and put the Shiites in charge of paying the rest. What do you think will be the upshot of this ?
BBC NEWS | Middle East | Awakening fears for Iraq's future (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7645647.stm)
Sunni-Shiite rift provides jobs for entrepreneurs World wire news 24/7 from The Plain Dealer & Associated Press - cleveland.com (http://www.cleveland.com/world/index.ssf/2008/08/sunnishiite_rift_provides_jobs.html)
BBC NEWS | Middle East | Iraq's Awakening Councils (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7644448.stm)

Currently the Saudis are supposed to be "negotiating" with the Taliban. Scuttlebutt has it that the Saudis might even be considering helping with the "bailout" too. Sharia finance supposedly does not permit some of the practices that put the western financial system into peril recently. Short selling, for example, is strictly forbidden. I think I read that even charging interest on a loan is forbidden. How would you feel about the Saudis holding your paper as a mortgage payer householder in the USA ?

Right now General Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani feels caught in the middle as he attacks extremist tribes people between trying to keep his army of divided loyalties going and being embarassed by USA incursions with drone missles and commando raids etc.

It is not always wise to simply categorize personalities in play in an important conflict one is in the midst of as being simply "good" or "evil".

[kuranes]

Sources: Taliban split with al Qaeda, seek peace - CNN.com (http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/10/06/afghan.saudi.talks/index.html)

[IlyaK1986]

Heh...making progress I see. Nice to know. Looks like al Qaeda is on its way out. Hopefully.

Now if Iran tests a nuclear weapon...I say we don't wait around, but give it to them the only way they want it.

[kuranes]

We can't defeat Taleban, says Brigadier Mark Carleton-Smith - Times Online (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article4887927.ece)

[whatever]

^ :yes: One of my good friends is a higher up in Afghanistan and has been there for a while- he said that they know that there's no real hope of ever defeating anyone there, it's basically been reduced to a Vietnam-like strategy of trying to figure out how to get out without being too embarassed.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend has always been a pretty bad idea, considering some of the assholes who we've hung around with in the past (Happy Birthday Ayatollah! :holy:).

[kuranes]

^ :yes: One of my good friends is a higher up in Afghanistan and has been there for a while- he said that they know that there's no real hope of ever defeating anyone there, it's basically been reduced to a Vietnam-like strategy of trying to figure out how to get out without being too embarassed.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend has always been a pretty bad idea, considering some of the assholes who we've hung around with in the past (Happy Birthday Ayatollah! :holy:).
Yeah, I know that the USA may have even ended up with Bin Laden as a result of trying to help Mujahideen with the Russians, and so I hear what you're saying. They're determined ( even if Obama is elected ) to "get" Bin Laden though ( even though his movement will carry on without him now ) and I had heard that the Taliban might help do that, if some of these deals go through. That would allow the USA to save face and leave, as you were saying.

Now I hear Pakistan is going broke, too, and I wonder when they'll start playing the North Korea game of "give me money or I will make threatening moves with my nukes, or consider selling them to bidders" etc.

How did you get to know this contact of yours ? He must have some interesting tales to tell. Maybe you can get him to subscribe to this thread and keep us updated. :)

[whatever]

He would be an interesting addition to the site- we know each other from college actually :)

Basically, from what I've heard, some people even doubt that Bin Laden is even still alive- meaning that we may as well wait for Godot as to wait for Bin Laden. He isn't a well man, and it's odd that we haven't heard much from him recently. If Bin Laden is dead, saving face may be more of a wish than an actual possibility. No other option- stabilizing the area, completely breaking up the fundamentalist aspects of society or winning the "hearts and minds" of the people of the region- seems like a viable possibility.

Pakistan will prove an even more interesting piece in this entire ordeal- especially considering that when we invaded Afghanistan, Pakistan was our ally in the region. The instability in the country, anti-American sentiments, and the current financial situation (not to mention the state that thier millitary is in and the fact that they already HAVE the bomb) definitley make it a danger. If it does play the North Korea card, who knows what country would even have the money to play into the bribes, with the current world financial problems!

All in all, it's interesting from an observer's standpoint, but rather terrifying once you realize the implications of everything and that there are people involved (and that we'll be stuck paying for this for who knows how long).

[Metamorphosis]

The enemy of my enemy is my friend has always been a pretty bad idea, considering some of the assholes who we've hung around with in the past (Happy Birthday Ayatollah! :holy:).

I think a larger problem is that we actually are severely limited in the pursuit/dismissal of allies now due to globalization communication/media. It's far more difficult to get the necessary behind-the-scenes work done. Choosing allies based on the American public's opinion and (more importantly) the opinions of lobbyists = massive fail.

Although, we did do it to Iraq. But it's ok there, because everyone in the middle east is inherently evil and anti-America.

[wildcat]

The enemy of my enemy is my friend ?

I remember the USA recruiting the poppy processing tribes kicked out by the Taliban in order to retake Afghansistan and and therefore supposedly reassert control of a different sort ( more amenable to the USA except for the heroin that comes from the poppies ) . There have been some problems with this ( just as there were eventually problems with the Mujahideen that were recruited to kick out the Russians ) but apparently the powers that be prefer the anti-Taliban tribes because they are not currently in league with al Quaida.

Just as nomads move across the lands they are in, confounding geographical property boundaries, so do these tribes change allegiances as they see fit. Maulavi Abdul Hakim Munib was a former Senior Taliban official and is now ( last I checked ) Governor of Uruzgan province in Afghanistan. he sometimes serves as a conduit or liaison between the US backed Afghan "government" and the increasingly encroaching Taliban, including their Quetta Shura or tribal council of leaders. This is probably a smart idea on the part of that current government. They know the reality is that the international forces are not always there to back up their policies when it counts - you only live once etc.

Look at the "Awakening" in Iraq. The USA finally decided to start doing something with many of the Sunnis that they had originally sidelined after the invasion. These Sunnis were also getting tired of the random nature of al Quaida guerilla casualties. Most importantly perhaps ( tell me your opinion ) they were getting paid by the USA to fight for their communities. They know these communities much better than foreign soldiers do and can also move through them as part of the background, blending in. It wasn't surprising to me that it was after this that al Quaeda started losing ground. IMHO it is mostly this , and not the vaunted "surge" that made such a big difference.

The new move is to take many of them off the payroll and put the Shiites in charge of paying the rest. What do you think will be the upshot of this ?
BBC NEWS | Middle East | Awakening fears for Iraq's future (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7645647.stm)
Sunni-Shiite rift provides jobs for entrepreneurs World wire news 24/7 from The Plain Dealer & Associated Press - cleveland.com (http://www.cleveland.com/world/index.ssf/2008/08/sunnishiite_rift_provides_jobs.html)
BBC NEWS | Middle East | Iraq's Awakening Councils (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7644448.stm)

Currently the Saudis are supposed to be "negotiating" with the Taliban. Scuttlebutt has it that the Saudis might even be considering helping with the "bailout" too. Sharia finance supposedly does not permit some of the practices that put the western financial system into peril recently. Short selling, for example, is strictly forbidden. I think I read that even charging interest on a loan is forbidden. How would you feel about the Saudis holding your paper as a mortgage payer householder in the USA ?

Right now General Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani feels caught in the middle as he attacks extremist tribes people between trying to keep his army of divided loyalties going and being embarassed by USA incursions with drone missles and commando raids etc.

It is not always wise to simply categorize personalities in play in an important conflict one is in the midst of as being simply "good" or "evil".
The enemy of the enemy is an abused friend.

[kuranes]

The Real News Network - Pakistani Lashkars join fight against Taliban (http://therealnews.com/t/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=2574&updaterx=2008-10-15+10%3A10%3A39)